Physician shortage statistics point to a growing mismatch between the number of doctors available and the care needs of the U.S. population. The Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) projects a shortage of up to 86,000 physicians by 2036. Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) data also show 8,789 primary medical Health Professional Shortage Area (HPSA) designations as of March 31, 2026, covering more than 101.7 million people.
Contents
- How large could the physician shortage become?
- Why population aging matters
- Primary care and specialty projections
- What the workforce projections show
- Where access gaps are concentrated
- State-level primary medical HPSA statistics
How large could the physician shortage become?
The AAMC’s March 21, 2024 projection estimates that the United States could face a shortage of as many as 86,000 physicians by 2036. That is a forecast, not a count of vacant positions on a particular date. It describes a possible gap between future demand for physician services and the available supply under the study’s assumptions.
An earlier AAMC projection, published June 26, 2020, estimated a shortage of between 54,100 and 139,000 physicians by 2033. The same source reported that the high end of its prior comparison was a projected shortage of 121,900 physicians by 2032. These figures come from different projection periods and reports, so they should be read as separate estimates rather than as a single continuous trend.
The size of the projected gap depends partly on how many physicians are needed to serve people who currently face limited access. The AAMC reported that, if underserved communities could obtain care at the same rate as better-served populations, the United States would have needed about 202,800 more physicians as of 2021. That measure describes an estimated access-equity gap at that time; it is not the same as the AAMC’s future shortage forecast.
The Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act would gradually add 14,000 Medicare-supported residency positions over seven years, according to the AAMC on March 21, 2024. Congress approved 1,200 new Medicare-supported graduate medical education positions in December 2020. Medical school enrollment had grown by nearly 40% since 2002, also according to the AAMC. Training expansion can increase future supply, but residency positions and practicing physicians are different measures.
Why population aging matters
The AAMC’s March 21, 2024 projections identify demographic change as a major factor in future physician demand. By 2036, the total U.S. population is projected to grow by 8.4%. Over the same period, the population age 65 and older is projected to grow by 34.1%, while the population age 75 and older is projected to grow by 54.7%.
Those percentages describe projected population change, not a direct estimate of how many appointments each age group will require. They do show that older age groups are projected to grow substantially faster than the total population. This is important when interpreting a physician shortage estimate because demand can rise even when total population growth is comparatively modest.
The physician workforce is aging as well. Physicians age 65 or older account for 20% of the clinical physician workforce, and physicians ages 55 to 64 account for 22%, according to the AAMC’s March 21, 2024 article. Together, those two reported age groups represent 42% of the clinical physician workforce. The figures do not state when individual physicians will retire, so they should not be treated as a retirement schedule.
Primary care and specialty projections
The AAMC’s June 26, 2020 projections divided the potential 2032 shortage into primary care and specialty care. The projected primary care shortage ranged from 21,400 to 55,200 physicians. The projected specialty care shortage ranged from 33,700 to 86,700 physicians.
The same AAMC report provided more detail for 2033 specialty categories:
| Category | Projected shortage | Projection year |
|---|---|---|
| Primary care | 21,400–55,200 physicians | 2032 |
| Specialty care | 33,700–86,700 physicians | 2032 |
| Medical specialists | 9,300–17,800 physicians | 2033 |
| Surgical specialists | 17,100–28,700 physicians | 2033 |
| Other specialists | 17,100–41,900 physicians | 2033 |
The medical-specialist, surgical-specialist, and other-specialist ranges are categories within the AAMC’s specialty discussion. Because the report uses different years and category groupings, the ranges should not be added together or compared as if they were one common-year total.
The AAMC also reported a concrete access measure from a July 2019 article citing UnitedHealth Group: about 44 million Americans, or 13% of U.S. residents, lived in areas with a primary care shortage. Rural Americans were almost five times as likely as urban and suburban residents to live in a county with a shortage of primary care physicians. These are location-based access statistics from that period, not current national totals.
The July 2019 AAMC article also reported that 8,116 internal medicine positions were offered in the 2019 National Resident Matching Program match. U.S. MD graduates filled 41.5% of those positions. That result describes one specialty and one match year; it is not a measure of all residency positions or all practicing physicians.
What the workforce projections show
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Occupational Outlook Handbook counted 839,000 physicians and surgeons in 2024 and projects 863,200 in 2034. The BLS projects a net employment change of 24,300 from 2024 to 2034, equivalent to 3% growth. It also projects about 23,600 openings for physicians and surgeons each year on average over that decade.
| BLS measure | Reported figure |
|---|---|
| Physicians and surgeons in 2024 | 839,000 |
| Physicians and surgeons projected in 2034 | 863,200 |
| Net employment change, 2024–2034 | 24,300 |
| Projected growth, 2024–2034 | 3% |
| Average annual openings, 2024–2034 | 23,600 |
| Median wage in May 2024 | At least $239,200 per year |
The BLS count and projection use the broad occupational group of physicians and surgeons. They are therefore useful for describing the overall employment outlook, but they do not replace the AAMC’s shortage modeling, which estimates unmet future demand under different assumptions.
The BLS also publishes occupation-level counts and projections. Family medicine physicians numbered 116,000 in 2024 and are projected to reach 119,100 in 2034. General internal medicine physicians numbered 73,200 in 2024 and are projected to reach 75,600 in 2034. Psychiatrists numbered 27,100 in 2024 and are projected to reach 28,800 in 2034.
Among other specialties, anesthesiologists numbered 45,300 in 2024 and are projected to reach 46,700 in 2034. Emergency medicine physicians numbered 36,100 in 2024 and are projected to reach 37,100 in 2034. Cardiologists numbered 19,400 in 2024 and are projected to reach 20,200 in 2034. All of these counts and projections are from the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook.
The BLS reported that the median wage for physicians and surgeons was at least $239,200 per year in May 2024. The “at least” wording matters: it indicates the published wage threshold rather than a more precise median amount.
Where access gaps are concentrated
HRSA’s Primary Medical HPSA Quarterly Report, dated March 31, 2026, listed 8,789 primary medical HPSA designations. These designated areas covered 101,733,016 people and met 47.74% of estimated need. HRSA reported that 17,306 practitioners were needed to remove all primary medical HPSA designations.
HRSA classified the designations into 1,443 geographic-area HPSAs, 2,514 population-group HPSAs, and 4,832 facility HPSAs. The categories describe different ways that an area or population can qualify as a shortage area; they are not necessarily mutually exclusive counts of unique communities.
Rural areas accounted for 5,451 primary medical HPSAs, or 62.02% of all primary medical designations. Rural primary medical HPSAs covered 28,186,703 people and needed 4,857 practitioners to remove the designations. The rural figures show how strongly shortage designations are concentrated outside metropolitan areas, while the national population figure shows that urban and other non-rural communities also remain affected.
The HRSA “need met” measure is a percentage of estimated need, not a percentage of people who have received care. Likewise, the number of practitioners needed to remove designations is an administrative shortage estimate and should not be interpreted as the total number of physicians missing from the entire U.S. health system.
State-level primary medical HPSA statistics
The March 31, 2026 HRSA report provides state examples with different combinations of designations, affected population, and need met. The comparison below keeps the reporting period consistent.
| State | HPSAs | Designated population | Need met | Practitioners needed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 338 | 300,563 | 27.47% | 67 |
| Connecticut | 67 | 1,318,825 | 62.99% | 152 |
| Maine | 97 | 249,364 | 57.64% | 33 |
| Massachusetts | 68 | 702,128 | 61.27% | 89 |
| New Hampshire | 27 | 196,758 | 78.12% | 14 |
| Rhode Island | 17 | 257,218 | 74.29% | 22 |
| Vermont | 17 | 50,210 | 82.64% | 3 |
| New Jersey | 44 | 795,788 | 83.35% | 39 |
| New York | 203 | 5,143,725 | 34.55% | 1,115 |
| Nevada | 79 | 993,903 | 44.75% | 182 |
| Washington | 248 | 5,165,096 | 44.07% | 875 |
Among these states, Alaska had 338 primary medical HPSAs and a 27.47% need-met measure, with 67 practitioners needed to remove its designations. New York had 203 HPSAs, a designated population of 5,143,725, and 1,115 practitioners needed. Washington had 248 HPSAs covering 5,165,096 people and needed 875 practitioners; its need-met measure was 44.07%.
The highest need-met measures in this group were reported for New Jersey at 83.35% and Vermont at 82.64%. New Hampshire’s measure was 78.12%, while Rhode Island’s was 74.29%. These percentages do not mean that every resident in those states has equal access to a physician; they describe HRSA’s estimate for the designated primary medical HPSAs reported on March 31, 2026.
The state statistics also illustrate why a single national physician-shortage number cannot describe every community. A state can have relatively few designations but still cover a substantial designated population, or have many designations with a smaller affected population. Geography, population-group designations, facility designations, and the estimated number of practitioners needed all provide different views of primary care access.